Politics seem to be a large discussion nowadays and you may be wondering whether your city leans more republican or democrat. This may influence your decision or help educate you on your current city politics.
Phoenix, Arizona is a conservative city. The majority of Phoenix’s population are registered Republicans and have more conservative views. While this is true, in the 2020 election Phoenix flipped to liberal, making Arizona a blue state. Today, they have more registered republicans in the city.
Phoenix, Arizona has an interesting voting history that can make Arizona a swing state in elections. The best way to decide if Phoenix will remain a conservative city is by evaluating Arizona’s voting history.
Arizona’s Political History
Arizona’s political history
is a fascinating one. Arizona has not always been a swing state and has actually held strong in the Republican Party since 1952. The only two exceptions were the 1996 election and the 2020 election where Arizona became a blue state. After the 2020 election, Arizona made national news as it was being considered a new “swing state” in the 2020 election and was anticipated to stay a swing state in future elections.
What is a Swing State?
A swing state is a state that has about the same amount of registered republicans as it does democrats. Swing states play a very important role in determining whether a republican or democrat will hold office. What made Arizona a swing state in the 2020 election was the number of registered voters that had switched from republican to democrat within that same year.
Election History in Arizona
Since 1912 Arizona has been participating in US elections. Arizona has participated in a total of 28 elections since becoming a state. There have been 9 elections where Arizona has voted majority democrat and 19 elections where Arizona has voted majority republican. In total, Arizona has voted for the winning candidate 22 times making it a very reliable state within elections.
Elections from 2000 to 2016
The number of ballots cast versus voters registered stays pretty consistent in the state of Arizona over the years. If you look at each election and who won each time, this makes sense when looking at Arizona’s overall population and diversity. This also supports the state in being majority republican.
| Year | Registered Voters | Ballots Cast | Percentage |
| 2016 | 3,588,466 | 2,661,497 | 74.17 |
| 2012 | 3,124,712 | 2,323,579 | 74.36 |
| 2008 | 2,987,451 | 2,320,851 | 77.69 |
| 2004 | 2,643,331 | 2,038,069 | 77.10 |
| 2000 | 2,173,122 | 1,559,520 | 71.76 |
Population by Ethnicity
In order to understand how Arizona votes, you’ll want to understand the breakdown of their population by ethnicity. Arizona actually has quite a variety when it comes to its diverse population.
Here is the breakdown of the ethnic population in Arizona:
- 53.8% of the population is Caucasian
- 31.9% of the population is Hispanic
- 4.6% of the population is African-American
- 3.9% of the population is Native American/Alaskan Native
- 3.7% of the population is Asian
Arizona being a border state to Mexico does have a significantly large Hispanic population. Not only does this create diversity within the state, but it influences voting quite a bit. So, how does this population affect voting? Well, most of your hard labor workers are Hispanic and many of their jobs are at risk depending on which party takes office. Due to this, the Hispanic population is more likely to vote republican rather than democrat because the promises of the Republican Party align with the jobs this population has.
Arizona’s Caucasian population can split on whether they will vote democrat or republican. The African-American population is more likely to vote democrat as well as the Native population and Asian population.
The one thing that can persuade different populations to vote republican versus democrat is Christianity. Many Christians have the same values as the Republican Party and tend to vote on values rather than overall politics.
Controversy in the 2020 Election
I think one of the biggest historical moments in Arizona’s politics is the most recent election. Arizona made history in this election not only because it became a swing state but because there are claims that there was election fraud. I decided to do my own digging into this controversy and I discovered a lot.
According to the Arizona Secretary of State website, there were 4,281,301 registered voters in the state of Arizona and 3,420,565 ballots were cast making the voter turnout 79.9% which is over the average amount. On the same website, but within a PDF file, there seems to be some discrepancies. In this PDF file, it states that there were 4,281,152 total registered voters. That is 149 less than what the one calculation says on the same website.
Digging deeper into this matter, there were 1,378,324 registered democrats, 38,385 registered libertarians, and 1,508,778 registered republicans in the 2020 election. That is 130,454 more registered republicans than democrats, yet the majority still voted democrat making Arizona become a swing state.
Arizona is one of the states in the 2020 election that found thousands of ballots that voted democrat overnight when counting the ballots was supposed to be halted. This made many people question whether there was voter fraud involved. The courts ended up ruling that Arizona did not have any voter fraud and the election was fair. Many people still disagree with this ruling and more information is still coming out on whether there was voter fraud or not within the state of Arizona.
Phoenix in the 2020 Election
Phoenix, Arizona is one of the bigger cities in Arizona making it the focus during elections. Phoenix is in Maricopa County which is where most of the election fraud has been being investigated. According to Best Places Phoenix itself has been very liberal over the last several years, but the amount of registered republican voters shows otherwise.
In 2020 there were 915,227 active republican voters and 814,343 active democrat voters in Maricopa County. This would make Phoenix more republican, even in the 2020 election. There are a lot of discrepancies with numbers especially as the mainstream media reports them. When going to actual government websites and looking at public documents, they seem to tell a very different story.
So, why is this information being twisted and why is Phoenix directly involved? Many of the residents within Maricopa county are wondering why their city turned out to be democrat when they themselves and all their neighbors voted republican. It all has to do with a paper trail that is trying to be followed by those who voted republican. This mystery may never get solved and may be one that leaves people questioning if their vote even really counts.
Will Phoenix Remain Red or Blue?
This is a question that I find to be the most asked but also the most controversial. It’s honestly hard to say whether Phoenix will switch between red and blue. With Arizona now being considered a swing state, it absolutely could go back and forth, but when looking at all the numbers and details of registered voters, it seems to remain pretty republican.
In my opinion, I do believe that Phoenix will go back to being majority republican. Even though it is a larger city and larger cities tend to vote democrat, Phoenix has a large Hispanic and Christian population. Today, Arizona as a state has more registered republicans than it does democrats, this also remains true for Maricopa County. You can already see that flip back to republican just in the local elections.
So, will this be the end of Arizona being considered a swing state? I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona quits being a swing state. Arizona never was a swing state until the 2020 election and it had very little evidence to prove that it would continue being a swing state in future elections. Arizona has been very consistently republican for years and this includes Phoenix as one of its larger republican cities.
My prediction is that Phoenix will go back to republican for the upcoming local elections and in the next presidential election. Christians are becoming more reliant on their values and God which puts the republican party in favor of those Christians.
Conclusion
With Phoenix being the fifth largest city in the nation, they do have quite a strong hold on how the presidential elections will turn out. With the investigations of election fraud and Arizona’s overall diverse and Christian populations, the political conversations of Arizona’s elections seem to be a slippery slope between many.
While many find the results of the 2020 election to be controversial, others are just trying to get registered to vote in the next election. In the end, when looking at the numbers of registered republican voters, it’s clear that Phoenix, Arizona, and the state of Arizona overall is in fact more conservative when it comes to politics.
If you have any questions regarding whether or not you are registered to vote, contact your county office or go to Arizona’s government website to get more information on how to become a registered voter.
